Bitcoin is showing short-term relief in price and sentiment metrics, but investors should stay wary of a potential relapse into the 2022 bear-market dynamics. New data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index (BSI) has moved into neutral territory for the first time in this bear market, even as BTC tries to push toward fresh highs. At the same time, broader market mood appears to be firming, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbing back from extreme fear, hinting at a cautious but improving backdrop for traders and holders.

Key points:

Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has reached neutral territory (50) for the first time in this bear market, with BTC rallying toward $78,000.
CryptoQuant cautions that the relief could be transient, echoing the pattern seen earlier in March 2022 when neutral readings preceded renewed price declines.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recovered to the 30s, marking the most bullish sentiment since January and signaling a shift, albeit from a still-fragile base.

Bitcoin Bull Score Index exits the “bearish” zone

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, which aggregates nine price metrics to gauge overall momentum, shows Bitcoin entering neutral territory as the price tests the $78,000 level. This marks the first time the index has broken above the early-bear-market axis toward 50 since the downturn began. A CryptoQuant analyst highlighted the milestone in a recent post, noting that it represents a transition point rather than a signal of a lasting trend.

“First time in this bear market that the Bull Score Index enters neutral zone (50),” wrote Julio Moreno on X, underscoring that the shift is a notable, yet potentially fragile, moment. The caution mirrors a familiar pattern from the prior bear cycle, when the bull-score flickered into neutrality only to retreat as selling pressure resurfaced.

The historical context matters. In March 2022, the BSI briefly touched neutral territory for about a week before the price resumed its decline, reminding markets that a neutral reading does not guarantee sustained upside. As market participants monitor April’s monthly close, the key question remains whether BTC can sustain strength beyond a near-term range and break decisively out of a multi-month plateau noted by observers at times this year.

At present, traders are watching for catalysts that could lift the trajectory beyond the current range. CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain described a balance in the near term, with price hovering around $74,000 and activity suggesting a tug-of-war between supply and demand. While the neutral reading of the BSI implies a more balanced dynamic than the steeply bearish readings of the past months, it does not remove the risk of renewed downside if demand cools or macro stress reasserts itself.

Sentiment steadies, though still cautious

Beyond on-chain momentum, sentiment indicators are painting a cautiously improving picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recovered to a reading of 32 out of 100, moving away from the previous week’s Extreme Fear readings near 23. Although still categorized in the Fear territory, this shift signals a softening of negative mood among market participants. The index has roughly tripled in a little more than a week, reflecting a notable swing in trader psychology amid the price action.

“This places the market in a transitional phase, as investors await new catalysts to determine the next direction.”

The Fear & Greed Index is a lagging measure that aggregates multiple factors to gauge overall investor mood. Its upward movement toward a neutral zone aligns with the improved technicals observed in the BSI and with reports that Bitcoin has regained some supply-demand balance in recent days. Still, the index remains below the level that would typically accompany strong bullish conditions, reinforcing the sense that a breakout remains uncertain and conditional on broader market drivers.

In addition to the fear-greed cycle, broader market commentary has cited the potential for renewed volatility tied to macro and sector-specific developments. Cointelegraph’s coverage this week highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin breaking out of a multi-month trading range, a development that would align with improving sentiment but could hinge on fresh liquidity, risk appetites, and systemic cues from traditional markets.

<h2 What to watch next for Bitcoin

With BTC flirting with the $78,000 level and the BSI shifting into neutral territory, traders face a decision juncture. The immediate question is whether the balance between supply and demand can be maintained in the face of potential macro headwinds or if renewed selling pressure could reassert itself as the market digests upcoming catalysts.

Investors should pay particular attention to:

April monthly close: A decisive move above or below key thresholds could recalibrate market expectations and alter positioning among traders who use the BSI and sentiment signals to time entries and exits.
Resistance and liquidity dynamics: If the price breaks higher, traders will be watching for a sustained flow of bids and a shift in open interest that confirms conviction beyond a short-term squeeze.
Correlation with broader risk assets: As global risk appetite evolves, Bitcoin’s performance often tracks or diverges from equities and macro risk proxies, potentially amplifying moves around upcoming data releases or policy signals.

The evolving picture is a reminder that a neutral or even bullish signal in one metric does not erase risk. The 2022 bear episode began with a period of moderation before renewed declines; today’s readings suggest a transitional phase rather than a clear, enduring uptrend. For investors, the prudent approach remains to balance on-chain signals with macro awareness and to watch how fresh catalysts influence both price and sentiment in the weeks ahead.

As the market weighs these readings, the next moves in Bitcoin will be closely watched by traders, institutions, and developers alike. Whether this neutral tilt is a prelude to a sustainable rally or a temporary pause before further volatility remains an open question, but the current data clearly signal a shift away from the most bearish extremes toward a more balanced, if fragile, footing.