Bitcoin Drops Below $65K as Iran Tensions Lift Oil to $100, Yields Rise

Bitcoin slipped below the $65,000 mark on Thursday, touching a three-day low around $64,799 on Bitstamp, as broader risk markets weakened amid renewed US-Iran tensions. The drop came alongside a selloff in US equities, a rally in oil, and rising expectations that US interest rates could stay higher for longer.

With traders split over whether recent relief will extend—or fade—attention has turned to nearby technical levels, including a widely watched moving-average area that could influence the next leg of momentum.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin fell to three-day lows near $64,799 on Bitstamp as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slid on Thursday.
• US-Iran escalation fears fed into risk-off sentiment, lifting oil prices and pushing yields higher.
• Coinciding with the selloff, CME FedWatch odds shifted toward a potential 0.25% hike by the upcoming FOMC, a typical headwind for crypto.
• Traders are watching moving-average support and the $68,000 resistance zone for clues on whether BTC can attempt a bigger breakout.

Geopolitics hits risk assets, and BTC follows

According to TradingView data cited in the report, BTC/USD reached three-day lows of $64,799 on Bitstamp. The move lower was part of a broader pattern: when equities and other high-beta assets struggle, crypto often struggles too.

US market pressure intensified after President Donald Trump warned that he would blame Iran for recent Houthi strikes on Saudi commercial vessels. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he was “very disappointed” in the Houthis and referenced attacks on US ships from 2025.

By the close of New York trading, the S&P 500 had fallen 1.2%, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%. Oil strengthened sharply as well, with Brent crude rising to its highest level since early June and topping $100 per barrel.

That mix—weak equities, higher energy prices, and tightening financial conditions—can be hard for speculative assets. One signal highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter on X was that inflation expectations and interest rates were rising again, reinforcing the sense of renewed macro pressure on risk-taking.

Fed expectations shift: a potential 0.25% hike becomes more likely

Crypto traders often treat changes in Federal Reserve expectations as a direct input into near-term risk appetite. In this case, the report pointed to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showing an increased chance of a 0.25% hike ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next decision.

Odds neared 40% on Thursday, compared with roughly 12% a week earlier. Historically, expectations for additional rate hikes tend to weigh on assets that typically benefit from easier financial conditions.

The Kobeissi Letter also referenced 18-month highs in US 10-year bond yields, framing the move as evidence of fresh economic stress. Higher yields can tighten liquidity and raise discount rates—conditions that often challenge the multiples and leverage embedded in speculative markets.

BTC traders disagree on the path forward

As price weakened, the market message wasn’t consistent. The report described a split among traders about whether BTC’s relief could continue or whether the recent rally was approaching a turning point.

One commentator, Exitpump, argued on X that the “July rally” may end by late July and that traders should be prepared for downside if price breaks below $65,000. Their view—posted late on Wednesday—was effectively a stop-out narrative for longs: close positions near resistance and turn cautious once the $65K area gives way.

Other traders were more constructive. Crypto trader Jelle suggested BTC was “still making progress,” describing a path in which clearing a local area could open a route toward the $70K region and potentially establish a new trading range. The difference in outlook matters because it determines how quickly traders reposition—whether they treat the current decline as a continuation of bearish momentum or as consolidation before the next attempt higher.

Technical focus: moving averages and the $68,000 hurdle

Beyond macro catalysts, technical levels are currently driving day-to-day decision-making. The report highlighted crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe’s view that a 21-week simple moving average (SMA) around $64,073 represents key support.

Van de Poppe said, via an X post dated Thursday, that as long as BTC remains above the 21-Day MA, there should be room for a higher valuation in the near term. In the same post, he pointed to the “final hurdle” for a larger breakout: the $68,000 resistance zone, which he noted had been tested once and would now face a second attempt.

He also outlined a bullish target near $73,000 if BTC can break through that resistance area. For traders, this framing matters because it sets up a clear conditional roadmap: support preservation may keep the higher valuation thesis alive, while a sustained failure below key averages could invalidate the breakout scenario.

Heading into the next sessions, traders will likely keep one eye on macro signals—especially Fed expectations and bond yields—and the other on whether BTC can hold the $64K moving-average area and challenge $68,000 again without another sharp slide. The tension between geopolitics-driven risk aversion and the technical bullish targets is likely to define how quickly conviction returns to either side.