Bitcoin’s institutional story is turning, but not decisively—according to Swissblock, the most intense US spot Bitcoin ETF sell-off in the current bear market appears to be over, even as it cautions that institutional demand is still “not yet strong.”
While flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from ten straight days of outflows totaling $2.7 billion to a brief rebound, on-chain and derivatives-focused research continues to show a split: futures demand has improved faster than spot buying. That divergence matters because it often signals whether a recovery is durable or merely technical.
Key takeaways
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs reversed a ten-day outflow streak beginning June 17, after net outflows summed to $2.7 billion, per Farside Investors.
- Swissblock says the “most overwhelming” distribution wave has ended, but warns accumulation is still “positive, but not yet strong.”
- ETF flows show early stabilization—over $500 million net inflows across three trading days—yet remain fragile after a later net outflow.
- CryptoQuant analysis highlights a demand gap: derivatives demand moved toward neutral while spot demand stayed negative.
Swissblock: the ETF “storm” looks to have passed
In an X post on Thursday, Swissblock framed the recent ETF movement as the end of an unusually heavy sell-pressure phase. The firm described the episode as “the most overwhelming ETF distribution wave of this bear market,” adding, “The storm has passed.”
Swissblock also tied the change to improving risk conditions, stating that “Bitcoin Risk continues easing from Capitulation Risk” and that spot ETF flows have “turned slightly positive again.” The underlying flow numbers referenced in the article come from Farside Investors, a UK-based investment data provider that tracks ETF movement.
According to Farside Investors data, starting June 17 the US spot Bitcoin ETF complex recorded ten consecutive sessions of net outflows totaling $2.7 billion. After that stretch, the trend began to reverse, with more than $500 million in net inflows across three trading days—before the most recent session mentioned in the article closed with a net outflow of $84.9 million for Wednesday.
Swissblock characterized the rebound as a signal worth noting, but not one to overread. It called the development a “caveat” to the recovery narrative—an acknowledgement that ETF accumulation has improved, yet “institutional conviction is not returning with full force.”
“Has the storm passed? Or is Bitcoin simply in the eye of the storm?”
Why ETF flows matter—even when they turn
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a key channel for traditional and institutional access to BTC exposure. When flows consistently run negative for long stretches, it often reflects sustained risk-off positioning by allocators who use these vehicles as a regulated wrapper.
The shift from prolonged outflows to net inflows, even if modest or intermittent, can therefore represent more than a short-term trading reaction. It may indicate that some capital is returning after de-risking pressures eased.
Still, Swissblock’s framing is instructive for investors: “positive, but not yet strong” implies stabilization rather than a full recommitment of institutional capital. The specific pattern highlighted—three days of meaningful inflows followed by a smaller outflow—suggests demand may be improving unevenly rather than trending cleanly upward.
Spot versus futures: CryptoQuant sees a widening mismatch
Beyond ETF flow headlines, the broader picture of Bitcoin demand across market venues remains mixed. Earlier coverage referenced in the article pointed to demand as a recurring hurdle for a sustained bullish market recovery.
In fresh research shared this week through CryptoQuant, contributor IT Tech described conditions as partially improving while emphasizing a “clear divide between spot and derivatives markets.” In that view, total 30-day cumulative demand moved from close to -500K BTC to roughly -75K BTC.
More importantly, IT Tech said futures demand recovered faster than spot demand. Over the same period, futures demand shifted from -295,000 BTC to a “slightly positive” figure, while spot demand continued to register negative levels.
“This tells us something important. The latest bounce has been driven primarily by derivatives traders, while spot buyers are still relatively cautious,” IT Tech commented.
CryptoQuant’s framing aligns with a common market dynamic: derivatives can reflect expectations and hedging activity that change quickly, while spot buying—especially from longer-horizon participants—often requires stronger conviction. The article includes an additional historical observation attributed to IT Tech: the most reliable rallies tend to begin when both futures and spot demand rise together.
What to watch next: whether the spot bid returns
At this stage, the key uncertainty is whether the ETF improvement will translate into stronger, more persistent spot demand. The Swissblock takeaway—accumulation is improving but institutional conviction is not fully back—paired with CryptoQuant’s spot/derivatives divergence suggests investors should watch for confirmation across multiple indicators rather than relying on a single flow reversal.
In the coming sessions, readers should look for sustained net inflows in US spot Bitcoin ETFs beyond short bursts, alongside evidence that spot demand meaningfully turns positive rather than merely stabilizing while derivatives activity leads the rebound.
