Bitcoin Hits $65.3K in August as Soft US Jobs Data Shifts Fed Bets

Bitcoin extended its rally into Friday’s Wall Street open after a softer-than-expected US jobs report triggered a broad pullback in rate-hike expectations. TradingView data showed BTC/USD reaching $65,340 on Bitstamp, up about 1.3% on the day.

The catalyst was the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls release for July, which showed the US economy losing 23,000 jobs. With unemployment steady at 4.1% and revisions cutting prior months’ employment gains, markets recalibrated toward the Federal Reserve holding rates rather than raising them in September.

Key takeaways

• US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, with unemployment at 4.1%, lifting risk appetite across crypto and equities.
• CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shifted September expectations from a potential 0.25% hike toward a rate pause.
• Bitcoin traded near $65,340 on Bitstamp, holding gains despite a week marked by bearish crypto headlines.
• QCP Capital said this week’s price action looks more like “resilience” than a confirmed directional breakout.

Jobs data eases the policy path

According to the BLS, July nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000. The agency also flagged downward revisions to earlier data: employment for May was revised down by 66,000 (from +129,000 to +63,000) and June by 37,000 (from +57,000 to +20,000). Combined, these revisions put May and June employment 103,000 lower than previously reported, per the BLS statement.

Traders linked the weaker labor-market picture with a more cautious Fed stance. The result was a firmer open for US equities: the S&P 500 added roughly 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite was up just over 1% at the start of trading.

Interest-rate pricing moved quickly. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates markets now expect the Fed to hold interest rates at its September meeting. Before the jobs report, expectations had leaned toward a 0.25% hike, with the majority of odds favoring increases as late as the prior day.

From hike odds to a pause—what investors are watching

Analysts tied Friday’s print to how traders will position ahead of key Fed moments later this month. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said the jobs data would “set the tone” for the September meeting and the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August. Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, suggested the degree of labor-market deterioration would shape how strongly Fed chair Kevin Warsh is influenced by the numbers.

“An orderly slowdown supports the liquidity relief case, while a print weak enough to raise growth concerns can still pressure risk assets even as rate odds move,” Dori said in comments sent to Cointelegraph.

That nuance matters for traders because weaker payrolls can push markets toward rate relief, but an overly pronounced deterioration can revive fears about demand and corporate earnings. For Bitcoin and other high-beta assets, the direction of rate expectations may be helpful only if it is paired with a calmer macro narrative rather than an accelerated recession risk.

QCP sees resilience rather than confirmation

Even as the macro backdrop improved, analysts emphasized that crypto’s recent trading behavior has not yet converted into a clean trend signal. In a crypto and macro overview released on the day, QCP Capital described the environment for Bitcoin as “uncertain,” adding that the week’s price action suggests resilience rather than “clear directional confirmation.”

QCP pointed to specific stress factors from the prior week, including the fallout from the Coldcard wallet exploit and additional BTC sales attributed to corporate holders, including Strategy. Despite those shocks, QCP said options markets showed only “limited demand for panic protection,” implying that traders were not rushing to hedge tail risks to the same extent they might in a stronger selloff scenario.

Earlier reporting referenced how options positioning could set up expectations for a price-range breakdown, with Cointelegraph noting that some market participants anticipated a move out of a trading range next month. Taken together, the current picture appears to be one where macro improves sentiment, but crypto derivatives data has not fully signaled that a lasting trend is already in place.

Stocks up, crypto holding—still a “wait and see” setup

Bitcoin’s ability to remain bid into the Wall Street open aligns with the immediate effect of the US jobs report: lower rate expectations typically ease discount-rate pressure across risk assets. However, the presence of ongoing crypto-specific uncertainties—highlighted by QCP—suggests investors may be cautious about declaring a sustained recovery solely on one macro release.

For now, the market’s key near-term task is to test whether the jobs-driven shift in rate odds holds through the next batch of economic data. If labor-market weakness persists without escalating into broader growth concerns, Bitcoin may continue to benefit from a friendlier liquidity narrative. If, instead, economic deterioration accelerates, the same move that lifts “pause” odds could also reignite risk-off pressure.

As traders look ahead, the next decisive signal to monitor will be how upcoming labor and inflation data interact with Fed communication—especially whether markets keep pricing a September pause—or revert toward hike expectations.