Bitcoin SOPR Hits Longest Profit Run of 2026 as Bear-Market View Shifts

Bitcoin appears to be showing signs of a recovery in on-chain profitability despite the broader market still wrestling with uncertainty around where this cycle’s lows may ultimately form. A widely watched measure—spent output profit ratio (SOPR)—has remained above its breakeven level for an unusually long stretch in 2026, echoing patterns typically seen earlier during bull-market rebounds.

At the same time, analyst David Puell cautioned in a recent interview that SOPR’s improvement may not be enough by itself to conclude a bear-market floor is already in place. His view suggests that investors should respect the possibility of additional downside even as on-chain behavior turns more constructive.

Key takeaways

• According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s SOPR has stayed above the breakeven threshold of 1 since Aug. 19, currently around 1.002.
• The current three-week run is the longest bullish SOPR streak of 2026, a pattern often associated with early bull-market recovery conditions.
• Checkonchain’s wallet cohort analysis suggests UTXO profitability is beginning to resemble bull-market dynamics, including more profit-taking that doesn’t immediately flip back to losses.
• Despite the SOPR rebound, David Puell says investors still need more evidence before assuming the next bear-market floor is already set.

SOPR’s longest bullish streak in 2026

Crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that Bitcoin’s SOPR has been above its breakeven level of 1 since Aug. 19. SOPR evaluates whether coins spent on-chain are moving at a gain or a loss relative to the price basis at their prior transaction—so values above 1 generally indicate that spent outputs are more often being realized in profit.

In the current reading, SOPR sits near 1.002, a level slightly above breakeven but important because the metric tends to oscillate tightly around 1 for extended periods. What stands out here is duration: the measure has remained bullish for three full weeks, marking the longest such streak recorded so far this year.

That timing matters for traders because SOPR doesn’t just reflect a one-off bounce—it can signal whether the market is transitioning from “rally then sell” behavior typical of bear phases to “buy-the-dip” patterns often observed in earlier bull recoveries.

Wallet cohort analysis points to a profit-taking shift

SOPR can be further divided by wallet cohort, helping distinguish whether profitability is improving primarily among newer participants or whether longer-term holders are also spending in ways that suggest broad-based recovery. As noted by CryptoQuant-linked commentary, breaking SOPR down by investor groups can clarify whether on-chain gains are being concentrated or becoming more generalized.

Building on this type of analysis, Checkonchain highlighted short-term holder (STH) SOPR—tracking profitability for coins held for up to six months without selling. In a weekend post on X, Checkonchain said the market’s structure is starting to resemble early bull-market recovery behavior:

“In bear markets, rallies back into profit tend to get sold. In bull markets, short sharp moves below break-even tend to become buy-the-dip setups. The current structure is starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.”

The implication is not that drawdowns are impossible, but that the market may be failing to revert quickly to loss-making conditions after moving back toward profitability. If that continues, it can strengthen the case that the market is shifting toward more sustainable accumulation rather than transient bounce dynamics.

David Puell: SOPR helps, but downside risk remains

Even with the improving SOPR trend, David Puell—an investor and portfolio manager known for creating the Puell multiple indicator—stressed in an interview with CryptoQuant released on Sept. 4 that investors should not assume the next bear-market bottom has already been established.

Puell’s stance came as the BTC/USD market has been holding a local range around $80,000. He argued that more evidence is required before changing his long-term bias toward an already-confirmed recovery. When asked about how Bitcoin’s 25% August upside might play out heading into Q4, Puell suggested further upside is the less likely outcome and framed his position as a downside risk.

In his words, “In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk.” He also emphasized what he sees as the key prerequisite for altering his outlook: SOPR needs to remain above 1 for a longer period, alongside the broader requirement that investors are “realizing profits consistently without price going back to a new low.”

Importantly, Puell’s thesis doesn’t rely solely on on-chain profitability. He pointed to a technical requirement as well—Bitcoin needs to start printing a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on weekly time frames. Cointelegraph previously reported that this pattern remains absent on weekly charts, reinforcing the idea that on-chain improvement may currently be running ahead of price structure.

From “bear market over” to “prove it”: what to watch next

The SOPR recovery also follows earlier comments from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who—based on readings from the platform’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator—described the bear market as already “over.” That earlier claim, contrasted with Puell’s more cautious requirements, highlights a recurring tension in crypto market analysis: on-chain signals can improve before price confirms the new regime, and different indicators can lead at different speeds.

What readers should focus on now is whether the SOPR streak turns into a sustained shift rather than a temporary excursion. Puell effectively sets a bar: SOPR must hold above breakeven for longer while price does not revisit fresh cycle lows. Traders and investors should also watch for whether weekly price action begins to display the higher-highs and higher-lows structure Puell says is still missing.

If SOPR remains bullish and weekly structure eventually strengthens, the current on-chain pattern could transition from “early recovery resemblance” to a stronger confirmation of a cycle change. If instead SOPR fades back toward losses while price fails to build trend, the market may be demonstrating the kind of bear-market volatility where profit-taking doesn’t last.