Bitcoin steadied after a dip toward weekly lows, with the latest catalyst coming from cooling US inflation data. On Thursday, BTC moved modestly higher as July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a small decline in the annual rate and left month-on-month inflation unchanged, easing pressure on rate-hike expectations.

Still, traders are watching key downside levels closely. On-chain and liquidation analytics indicate that a move toward $61,000 could trigger concentrated long-position liquidations, potentially accelerating selling if that support breaks.

Key takeaways

July US PPI came in softer than expected on a year-over-year basis, supporting a risk-on tone in traditional markets.
Federal Reserve officials remain split on the rate path, but Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack delivered a cautious message on inflation progress.
Bitcoin’s near-term price action appears range-bound, leaving liquidation zones at the edges of the range more influential.
Glassnode cofounder Rafael Schultze-Kraft highlighted $61,000 as a potential flashpoint due to built-up long liquidation risk.

July PPI cools, supports US stocks—and Bitcoin

According to TradingView data, BTC/USD was up roughly 0.5% on the day near $63,900, with volatility relatively muted at the time. The broader tailwind came from July’s US Producer Price Index print published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Per the BLS, July’s PPI was unchanged month-on-month at 0.2%, while the year-over-year increase slowed to 4.7% compared with a 4.9% expectation. The BLS attributed the monthly flat reading to offsetting components: a 0.2% rise in final demand services and a 2.2% increase in final demand construction, countered by a 0.7% decrease in final demand goods.

The BLS also noted that falling gasoline and energy prices provided the largest source of relief. Econoday analysts similarly pointed to the flat overall outcome in their commentary on the report.

As the PPI release hit markets, US equities rose at the open. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up 0.87% and 0.94%, respectively, reflecting renewed optimism that inflation pressures may be easing enough to keep the Federal Reserve on hold.

For crypto investors, the immediate significance is clear: when inflation prints reduce the probability of further tightening, it can improve sentiment across risk assets, including Bitcoin—even if crypto-specific drivers remain secondary in the short run.

Rate-hike bets shift, but the Fed’s tone stays careful

Rate expectations moved in tandem with the data. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed 65.6% odds that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would hold interest rates at the current 3.50% to 3.75% level at its September meeting. The update followed Wednesday’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which matched expectations and had already supported the “pause” narrative.

However, inflation data may not be enough on its own to settle the Fed debate. The Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank’s president, Beth Hammack, questioned whether recent cooling prints would reliably bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal—and whether the time required would be acceptable. In remarks delivered at an event in Kettering, Ohio, Hammack suggested policymakers may still need continued improvement rather than assuming that favorable prints guarantee a quicker path to target.

Bloomberg reported Hammack’s remarks with the framing that even if the central bank reaches its goal, it could take another three to four years, raising the question of whether that timeline is “OK” for the committee’s outlook.

Notably, Hammack was one of three Fed officials who supported a 0.25% rate hike in July, underscoring that a cautious stance remains present even as incoming inflation data moderates.

Traders eye liquidation pressure near $61,000

Even with the macro tailwind, Bitcoin’s price action has been relatively contained. That makes positioning and liquidation levels more important when BTC approaches range extremes.

Glassnode cofounder Rafael Schultze-Kraft pointed to $61,000 as the next potential trouble spot. In an earlier Tuesday post on X, he wrote that long liquidation risk has built up around $61K over the past few weeks, and that if price reaches that area, forced selling could add momentum to the downside.

In other words, rather than relying purely on technical support as a “line in the sand,” traders may also be considering how derivatives mechanics could amplify any break. When liquidation clusters are concentrated, the market can transition quickly from a slow bleed to a sharp drop—especially if liquidity thins.

This focus on $61,000 also fits with earlier market commentary from Cointelegraph, which reported that $63,000 had started forming a key level after repeated retests increased the odds of a support failure if buyers failed to defend it.

From a trading perspective, the key implication is not that $61,000 is guaranteed to break—rather, it highlights where downside acceleration risk is most pronounced if momentum turns bearish. For spot holders and derivatives traders, that distinction matters: the level is important partly because of how it could trigger broader, mechanical selling pressure.

As of this writing, Bitcoin is still trading off the bounce from weekly weakness, but with macro expectations and Fed messaging still in flux, attention is likely to keep oscillating between inflation-driven sentiment and crypto-specific positioning.

Looking ahead, traders should monitor whether further inflation-related surprises continue to soften rate expectations—and whether BTC can hold key intraday levels without drawing price toward the liquidation pocket around $61,000. The next decisive move may come less from a single headline and more from how markets price the Fed’s timeline after each new data release.