Bitcoin’s 4-Year Trend Points to $76K; Analysts Say Price Still Intact

Bitcoin’s price action is looking increasingly like it has followed the blueprint of prior market cycles, according to new technical research circulating this week. One analyst argues BTC is “compressed” below a longer-term adoption structure, while another set of estimates suggests the current bear-market leg may be only partly finished—and could face renewed pressure around August if key monthly levels fail.

Together, the commentary points to a market that may not be “broken,” but is still working through historical patterns that have often dictated the next directional shift for BTC over multi-month horizons.

Key takeaways

• Analyst David Eng says Bitcoin remains cyclical, tracking both a 400-day clock and a longer four-year “adoption structure” trend line.
• Eng’s framework places a four-year fair-value target near $76,400, implying BTC is trading below that level and therefore “compressed.”
• Rekt Capital estimates the ongoing bear market is about 71% complete, based on historical analogs.
• Rekt Capital is watching the 50-month EMA near $63,900; a monthly close around $62,000 would be treated as a possible breakdown signal.
• If July improves but fails to hold, Rekt Capital warns August could negate any upside and bring further downside continuation.

Two-cycle timing: “not broken,” but compressed

In a Wednesday post on X, analyst David Eng described Bitcoin’s behavior as running on “two clocks.” The shorter cycle, he said, is linked to a 400-day simple moving average (SMA), while the longer cycle filters out “noise” and highlights a structure tied to adoption over multi-year periods.

Eng pointed to the 400-day SMA as a recurring support level during previous bull markets, noting that this cycle has not seen daily candle closes below the average, echoing how prior runs behaved. On the four-year time frame, he argued a cleaner uptrend becomes visible, with price shifting above and below the trend line depending on where the market is in its cycle.

The practical takeaway from Eng’s thesis is that Bitcoin repeatedly stretches away from the longer-term adoption structure and then reverts toward it—rather than moving in a straight line. In his view, that means the current conditions reflect compression beneath the structure instead of a structural failure.

Eng also calculated that the four-year trend line currently implies a “fair price” around $76,400. He framed BTC as undervalued by roughly 20% relative to that estimate. In addition, Eng referenced Bitcoin’s Power Law trajectory, suggesting it is now entering territory approaching $135,000—an observation he used to reinforce the idea that the broader cycle framework remains intact.

“It is compressed below its adoption structure.”

When monthly closes matter: the 50-month EMA test

While Eng focused on longer-horizon cycle structure, another analyst—Rekt Capital—has been looking at how bear-market history typically evolves after key moving averages are challenged. In his latest commentary, Rekt Capital put the current downtrend at around 71% complete, referencing his own historical comparison work.

A central part of that monitoring centers on Bitcoin’s 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), which he described as currently sitting near $63,900. For traders, the distinction between an intramonth move and a confirmed monthly close is important: Rekt Capital’s scenario depends on what the market does at the month’s end.

He suggested that if the June monthly close resembles a trade around $62,000, it would “confirm the breakdown” from the 50-month EMA. In his framing, a subsequent month that turns positive could then potentially convert the 50-month average into new resistance—turning a former support reference into a ceiling.

“August would cancel out July and send Bitcoin into downside continuation.”

Why a “compressed” market can still signal tension

Eng’s “compressed” characterization and Rekt Capital’s caution about possible continuation are not necessarily contradictory. Eng’s framework emphasizes that Bitcoin can remain cyclical even when it is trading below a longer-term adoption structure; the compression can persist as the market works through transitional phases of the cycle. Rekt Capital, meanwhile, is concerned with the near-to-medium-term path that often determines whether a bear market grinds lower before eventually bottoming.

That overlap matters for investors because it highlights two different risk windows. In Eng’s view, BTC is still reverting toward the longer-term framework; in Rekt Capital’s view, the next steps depend on whether the market successfully holds key moving-average terrain—particularly around the 50-month EMA region.

For traders, this creates a practical monitoring checklist: not just where BTC trades intraday, but whether monthly closes confirm or negate moving-average breakdown narratives. If the market does not follow through on a breakdown, the downside thesis weakens; if it does, historical patterns may reassert themselves on the timeline Rekt Capital laid out.

What to watch next

The key near-term variable is how BTC behaves around the cited monthly level dynamics—especially whether June’s end-of-month close confirms weakness relative to the 50-month EMA, and whether any July strength can persist or gets reversed in the way Rekt Capital expects for August. Beyond that, Eng’s longer-cycle “fair value” reference around $76,400 may become a useful benchmark for assessing whether compression is merely a pause or the start of a broader repricing.