Ethereum poised for 25% rally as top ETH whales return to profitability

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), may push higher in the coming months as the market’s richest whale cohort returns to profitability for the first time since early February. Fresh on-chain signals point to a potential bottoming process that could set the stage for a renewed rally, though investors should remain mindful of historical caveats.

Key takeaways

• The unrealized profit ratio of wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH has flipped back above zero, signaling that the largest holders are no longer sitting on aggregate losses.
• Historically, a transition to profitability for this whale group has preceded notable uptrends: roughly 25% gains in about three months, around 50% in six months, and even larger moves over the following year.
• If the pattern holds, ETH could target the $2,750 area by June and potentially exceed $3,200 by September, anchored by on-chain and chart signals aligning in a bullish configuration.
• Glassnode’s MVRV-based valuation bands suggest upside potential but outline key thresholds: reclaiming the realized price near $2,353 would open a path toward the -0.5 sigma band around $2,640; failing to reclaim could leave ETH vulnerable to further downside toward $1,651.
• Technical factors reinforce the bull case: ETH recently cleared an ascending triangle, with a retest of the breakout level as support, a setup that commonly precedes further upside if the trendline holds.

Whale profitability as a potential catalyst

CryptoQuant’s data on the 100,000 ETH-plus wallet cohort shows the unrealized profit ratio returning to positive territory. In practical terms, this means the largest holders are no longer in a net loss position on their outstanding, largely illiquid exposure. An on-chain analyst known as CW noted that such shifts have historically marked the onset of sustained upside moves, providing a support-for-optimism signal for the broader market.

From a historical perspective, a positive flip in this whale ratio has correlated with meaningful appreciation in ETH’s price: approximately 25% gains over roughly three months, about 50% over six months, and even larger moves within a year. While not a guaranteed predictor, the pattern underscores a common market dynamic: when big owners stop bleeding on paper losses, selling pressure can ease and conviction among the largest holders can re-emerge.

That dynamic matters because ETH’s price action often hinges on how much the whale cohort wants to realize profits and how quickly the broader market absorbs their moves. A fresh wave of on-chain confidence could feed into a broader narrative of accumulation among the richest ETH holders, potentially reinforcing a self-fulfilling rally.

Valuation signals align with a recovery path

Another supportive lens comes from on-chain valuation bands tracked by Glassnode. The data shows ETH rebounding from a low MVRV deviation, with similarities to prior cycles in Q2 2022 and what we observed in 2025. The current setup suggests ETH would need to reclaim its realized price—approximately $2,353—to unlock further upside toward the -0.5 sigma pricing band near $2,640.

Conversely, failing to reclaim the realized price keeps ETH exposed to downside risk, with the next meaningful support near the lowest deviation band around $1,651. In practical terms, the realized price is acting as a critical fulcrum: a successful reclaim would bolster the bullish thesis, while failure to recapture could invite renewed pressure to test deeper supports.

Technical picture: what the chart is signaling

On the price chart, ETH appears to have broken out of an ascending triangle, a textbook breakout signal. The next phase often involves a retest of the breakout level, where the market checks whether the former resistance has truly flipped into support. If this retest holds, the path toward the measured upside target near $2,625–$2,750 becomes more plausible, with a broader alignment to the on-chain recovery framework described above.

That target sits comfortably within the envelope of the on-chain recovery range highlighted by MVRV analysis, providing an additional layer of confluence for a bullish setup. However, a failed retest could undermine the breakout and re-open downside risk toward the lower support zone around $1,950–$2,000.

What this means for traders and holders

For traders, the convergence of on-chain profitability signals and a constructive chart pattern offers a clearer directional read than in weeks past. The combination of a profitability flip among the 100k+ ETH whale cohort and a successful breakout retest reduces near-term selling pressure from some of the market’s deepest liquidity pockets, potentially enabling a smoother climb higher if macro conditions stay supportive.

For long-term holders, the narrative centers on a potential re-accumulation phase among the wealthiest ETH wallets and a gradual re-anchoring above realized price levels. This alignment can bolster confidence in ETH’s resilience during broader crypto cycles, especially if macro risk sentiment improves or if fundamental rails such as network activity and developer engagement continue to strengthen.

Historical context and what remains uncertain

It’s important to temper optimism with caution. The 2018 era offers a reminder that a similar flip in profitability among large holders does not guarantee a sustained uptrend. In that period, ETH experienced a notable downside following the signal before eventually stabilizing and resuming its long-term ascent. As with any on-chain narrative, outcomes depend on a confluence of factors, including macro conditions, regulatory developments, and competing liquidity dynamics in DeFi and institutional markets.

Looking ahead, key milestones to watch include a decisive reclaim of the realized price, a sustained hold of the breakout level on retests, and how quickly the market digests the next round of on-chain data from sources like CryptoQuant and Glassnode. If the current signal persists and macro backdrop remains supportive, a test of the $2,750 region by mid-year and a challenge of $3,200 later in the year could be within reach.

This article does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions are subject to change, and investors should perform their own due diligence before acting on any on-chain or technical signals.

What happens next will hinge on how decisively ETH can defend the breakout and whether the largest holders maintain their renewed profitability. As the ecosystem evolves, traders and hodlers alike should keep a close watch on realized-price dynamics, MVRV deviations, and the evolving behavior of the 100k+ ETH cohort to gauge the durability of any emerging uptrend.