Bitcoin’s “cycle peak buyers”—the investors who accumulated near the latter stages of the last bull run—may be nearing the point where their selling pressure fades, according to new on-chain analysis shared by Glassnode researcher Cryptovizart. The implication is straightforward: if realized losses among one-to-two-year holders keep rolling over, it can mark an early phase of relief from bear-market distribution.

The same report also points to a familiar near-term battleground for price action. Glassnode highlights short-term holders’ aggregate cost basis around $69,000, noting that this level overlaps with old 2021 all-time highs—often a zone where markets either break out decisively or become stuck in a wider range.

Key takeaways

Glassnode’s realized-loss metric for 1–2 year holders is used as a historical bear-market “endgame” signal.
Cryptovizart’s chart suggests realized losses recently passed $75 million before beginning a reversal.
The next potential supply/resistance area centers on $69,000, where short-term holders’ cost basis aligns with former 2021 highs.
Both signals emphasize shift in cohort behavior—not just price—to gauge whether the market is transitioning out of a bottoming phase.

Why realized losses among 1–2 year holders matter

Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at Glassnode, laid out the framework in a post on X on Friday. In the analyst’s view, one of the most reliable early checks for whether a bear market has truly started to end is the Realized Loss volume (in USD) by 1–2 year holders.

In on-chain terms, the metric tracks the value of Bitcoin being moved at a loss by coins that have been held for roughly one to two years. When that loss realization rises during a downturn, it often reflects holders giving up after prolonged underperformance. When it starts to cool, it can indicate that the “heaviest distribution” is losing momentum.

According to the post, coins that last transacted at a loss did so during a window spanning July 2024 to July 2025. Over that interval, BTC/USD rose from roughly $62,800 to around $107,000, meaning that a large portion of investors who bought during the latter portion of the bull market are currently underwater on their allocation.

“As frustration builds with sustained price underperformance, this cohort tends to progressively increase loss realization.”

Cryptovizart argues that bear markets have historically lacked durable footing until this specific group begins to exhaust its sell pressure—when realized losses stop climbing and the trend begins to reverse.

The $75 million realized-loss rollover signal

The key visual in the analysis is a spike in realized losses measured on a 30-day moving basis. Cryptovizart notes that realized losses recently climbed to a level above $75 million before the indicator started turning downward.

In the analyst’s framework, the most watchable part isn’t just whether realized losses are elevated—it’s whether the 30D moving average of realized loss begins to cool and roll over. That change, Cryptovizart said, has often appeared among the clearest early signs that the market is moving beyond the phase of concentrated selling.

“When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market.”

For traders and investors, the practical value of this type of signal is that it ties market stress to behavior on-chain. Rather than relying purely on speculative narratives around price, it focuses on whether holders most likely to capitulate are actually doing so—or whether that pressure is beginning to fade.

From on-chain loss exhaustion to the $69,000 price battleground

Realized losses are only one piece of the puzzle for bottom-timing. Glassnode’s ongoing work also emphasizes the role of cost basis—particularly for speculators who bought closer to the current price regime.

In its newsletter edition The Week Onchain, Glassnode pointed to Bitcoin speculators’ aggregate cost basis as the next hurdle the market may need to clear for momentum to improve. In the report, that reference level is around $69,000.

Notably, Glassnode says that this cost basis zone also overlaps with old all-time highs from the 2021 bull market. From an order-flow perspective, that overlap matters because it combines two forces that can amplify short-term reactions: sellers who bought at that level (or near it) may be more inclined to exit once price returns, while buyers trying to reclaim prior “breakout” levels may need to overcome earlier supply.

“The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole.”

Glassnode also framed the scenario in terms of what happens immediately after price approaches the region: a convincing reclaim could open the door for more sustained recovery, while rejection would suggest the market is still negotiating its range rather than transitioning into a new phase.

“A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact.”

What to watch next as these signals converge

The most important development implied by Glassnode’s research is the alignment of two different on-chain narratives: (1) realized loss pressure from 1–2 year holders appears to be rolling over, and (2) the market is approaching a widely watched cost-basis resistance zone near $69,000. If realized losses continue to drift lower while price tests that cost-basis level, bulls will likely look for a sustained reclaim rather than a short-lived bounce; if realized losses stop improving or cost-basis resistance holds, the probability of prolonged consolidation increases.

Readers should watch whether the 30-day realized-loss trend continues to cool and whether BTC can hold above or reject the $69,000 region as the next clear confirmation point for market participants.