Moon Pursuit Capital Founder and Managing Partner Utkarsh Ahuja said markets face a “test” of liquidity, confidence and political risk in the week of 2 November 2026, as the fallout from the Binance hack continues, US midterm elections approach and inflation keeps pressure on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
Binance withdrawals and competition among crypto exchanges
In his market commentary dated Monday, 2 November 2026, Ahuja focused on whether recent outflows from Binance could reshape competition among major exchanges.
He said “early indications” of inflows into competing platforms such as OKX and Bybit suggest at least some investors may be reallocating capital rather than exiting the crypto ecosystem entirely. He added that the key question is whether the industry will experience a Binance-specific confidence problem or a broader crisis affecting centralized exchanges.
Ahuja also argued that if capital is shifting between exchanges, the impact may be more about redistribution of market share than a sustained deterioration in overall crypto liquidity. He warned, however, that the security breach remains serious and that institutions are likely to reassess counterparty exposure, with confidence taking time to rebuild.
US midterms, jobs data and the path for Bitcoin
Ahuja said crypto is entering an important week with the US midterms, Friday’s employment report and the Binance fallout competing for investors’ attention. He said political outcomes can influence expectations around regulation and fiscal policy, while jobs data helps shape the market’s view of the Fed’s next move.
He cautioned against making a purely directional call on Bitcoin based on the election result, saying markets tend to respond more to what political developments imply for liquidity, interest rates and the cost of capital than to headlines themselves.
His broader view was that Bitcoin has established its cyclical bottom and is in the early stages of a renewed upward phase, though he said the recovery is unlikely to be linear and could include volatility and corrections.
Fed outlook: strong growth alongside stubborn inflation
Ahuja cited US macro figures including 3.4% annualized growth in the third quarter and 3.6% annual PCE inflation in September. He also referenced the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, where rates were held at 3.75% to 4% while two policymakers favored an increase.
He said this creates an “uncomfortable combination” for markets: strong growth can be supportive for corporate earnings, but persistent inflation can limit the Fed’s ability to ease financial conditions. He highlighted a central question for December, arguing that resilient employment, continued expansion and persistent inflation could strengthen the case for further tightening rather than just maintaining the current stance.
For crypto and other higher-risk assets, he said tighter financial conditions and higher real yields could weigh on valuations, while stronger liquidity conditions would likely be supportive. At the same time, he said monetary policy affects the timing and magnitude of market moves but does not determine the industry’s longer-term potential.
US-Iran tensions and energy prices
Ahuja said developments relating to the Iran conflict are becoming a key variable for global markets, particularly through their effects on energy prices, inflation expectations and broader risk appetite.
He said renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomatic engagement have contributed to lower oil prices, while escalation risks could disrupt energy markets and complicate inflation expectations. He added that Bitcoin could behave like a risk asset during periods of acute geopolitical stress, when investors may reduce exposure to seek liquidity even if the longer-term thesis remains intact.
AI spending: from infrastructure investment to monetization
Beyond crypto, Ahuja said the AI investment theme is strong but investors should pay closer attention to whether capital expenditure translates into actual returns. He argued that spending on compute infrastructure, data centers and advanced chips may be justified over time, but profitability depends on factors such as utilization, pricing power, operating costs and technology lifespan.
He predicted a growing distinction between companies that can benefit from AI-related spending and those that can convert demand into sustainable revenue, margins and cash flow. In his view, “the next phase” of AI investing will increasingly be about monetization rather than technological capability alone.
What Ahuja said he is watching
In closing, Ahuja said he is monitoring whether Binance withdrawals continue to normalize, whether competing exchanges sustain recent inflows, how Bitcoin responds to the US midterms and whether Friday’s employment data alters expectations for the Fed’s December decision. He also said he will watch the impact of Iran-related developments on oil prices and inflation expectations, along with broader corporate earnings to assess whether AI investment is translating into stronger revenue, margins and cash generation.
