Standard Chartered Raises $2T Stablecoin Outlook to 2030 as Volumes Grow

Standard Chartered says stablecoin activity is continuing to expand even while the broader market’s value has largely gone sideways. In a report shared with Cointelegraph, the bank argues that growth is being driven less by brand-new stablecoin supply and more by the way existing tokens are being used—circulating more frequently as use cases broaden.

The bank also revised its long-term outlook. Standard Chartered now expects stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by 2030, pushing its timeline out by two years after the market plateaued at around $309 billion this year.

Key takeaways

• Standard Chartered attributes steady stablecoin growth more to faster token turnover than to rapid expansion in new issuance.
• Stablecoin adoption is splitting into four competitive segments with distinct winners across regions and use cases.
• Tether’s USDT is cited for dominance in emerging-market savings, while Circle’s USDC is positioned as leading developed-market payments.
• Stablecoin competition may hinge on who captures yield from reserve assets and how it is shared between issuers and payment networks.
• Upcoming US rules—under the GENIUS Act, Treasury licensing proposals, and FASB accounting changes—could alter how businesses use stablecoins.

Stablecoin growth despite a market plateau

Standard Chartered’s core message is that stablecoins are becoming more active participants in the crypto economy without needing a sustained surge in overall market capitalization. According to the bank, stablecoin transaction activity continues to rise even as the total market value appears stalled.

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at StanChart, said stablecoin usage is expanding through diversification of real-world functions. In the bank’s framing, existing stablecoins are being exchanged and reused more often, which supports activity growth even when supply growth is slower.

That distinction matters to market participants because it implies stablecoin strength may not always show up first in headline market cap figures. For traders and infrastructure providers, higher turnover can signal deeper integration into payment rails, trading pipelines, and settlement workflows—potentially with different risk and liquidity characteristics than “pure” issuance-driven growth.

Four markets, different winners

Standard Chartered breaks stablecoin competition into four distinct markets, noting that each segment has its own dynamics and leading assets.

• Emerging-market savings: The bank says Tether’s USDt (USDT) remains dominant in this category.
• Developed-market payments: Standard Chartered positions Circle’s USDC as the leading option for payments in developed economies.
• Crypto trading: Both USDC and Ethena’s USDe are described as established players in stablecoins used in trading.
• Transactions between AI agents: The report says USDC leads the smaller market focused on settlement and transactions between AI systems.

In Standard Chartered’s view, this segmentation helps explain why stablecoin activity can rise even when overall growth appears slower—different communities and workflows may be adopting stablecoins at different rates.

Why yield-sharing could decide the next wave of market share

Kendrick also highlighted a factor that could shape competitive outcomes: how issuers and payment networks divide the yield generated by stablecoin reserves.

Stablecoin economics are not uniform. Reserves, custody structures, and distribution arrangements vary by issuer and by how a network integrates stablecoin functionality into payments or settlement. Standard Chartered’s implication is that the distribution of reserve yield could influence developer and business incentives, potentially determining which competitors can attract liquidity and users over time.

For investors and builders, this is a useful lens: beyond branding or nominal market share, the incentive design behind stablecoin rails may become a practical differentiator—especially in segments where payment providers can route value through multiple stablecoin options.

US regulation and accounting may steer real-world adoption

Standard Chartered’s revised forecast also lands amid regulatory and accounting developments in the United States that could affect how companies deploy stablecoins.

Since the GENIUS Act passed in 2025, US regulators have proposed rules covering issuance, reserve requirements, and consumer protections. The report points to clarifications around the scope of protections, including an FDIC proposal that would exclude stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance.

The bank also notes movement at the Treasury Department level. In August, the Treasury proposed rules that would restrict stablecoin issuance in the United States to federally or state-authorized issuers, with licensing requirements expected to take effect in January 2027.

Separate from licensing and consumer-protection frameworks, accounting treatment could also influence corporate adoption. In August, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) proposed an update that could affect how companies report certain stablecoins on their balance sheets. Blockchain payments company Tempo said the proposed changes could make it easier for businesses to use stablecoins for payments and settlement without introducing additional accounting complications.

Taken together, these developments suggest stablecoin growth may increasingly depend on institutional comfort—not just market demand. For payments providers and corporate treasurers, regulatory certainty and predictable accounting treatment can be just as important as technical integration.

Looking ahead, readers should watch how US licensing details finalize ahead of January 2027, whether FASB’s proposal moves toward final guidance, and—crucially—whether competitive winners in different stablecoin segments continue to reflect not only usage but also the economics of yield-sharing across issuers and payment networks.