Standard Chartered is flagging a key shift in the stablecoin market: activity is rising even though overall market capitalization has largely stalled. In a report shared with Cointelegraph, the bank argues that the growth in transaction activity is being driven more by stablecoins being used more often than by major new issuance expanding the total supply.

The bank has also revised its outlook for the sector, now expecting stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by 2030—two years later than its earlier projection. Standard Chartered says this comes after stablecoins plateaued at roughly $309 billion this year.

Key takeaways

Standard Chartered expects stablecoin transaction activity to keep growing even as total market capitalization remains largely range-bound.
The bank revised its 2030 stablecoin market-cap forecast to $2 trillion, citing a plateau around $309 billion this year.
Different stablecoins appear to dominate different use cases, from savings in emerging markets to payments in developed markets.
Competition is expected to intensify most in developed-market payments, where challengers are targeting traditional payment rails.
Upcoming US regulatory and accounting steps could affect corporate adoption and how stablecoins are treated on balance sheets.

Stablecoin growth is increasingly about circulation, not just supply

In the bank’s view, stablecoin usage is expanding despite slower growth in the broader market. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, said the pattern suggests existing stablecoins are changing hands more frequently—an indicator of deeper integration into real-world workflows rather than a simple expansion in total tokens issued.

This distinction matters to investors and market participants because it changes how to interpret “growth.” If higher transaction activity comes from circulation, the market may become less dependent on constant increases in minting to sustain momentum. That, in turn, can affect liquidity, fee dynamics, and the competitive positions of issuers versus payment networks.

Which stablecoins win depends on the job they’re used for

Standard Chartered breaks the stablecoin landscape into four distinct markets with different competitive dynamics. According to Kendrick:

Tether’s USDt (USDT) leads in emerging-market savings.
Circle’s USDC (USDC) is positioned ahead in developed-market payments.
USDC and Ethena’s USDe hold strong places in crypto trading.
USDC also leads a smaller segment focused on transactions between AI agents.

The underlying theme is that stablecoin “market share” may be less about who issues the most tokens and more about which asset aligns best with a particular demand driver—payments, trading venues, treasury management, or emerging infrastructure for agent-to-agent transfers.

Developed-market payments face the fiercest competitive pressure

While Standard Chartered sees competition across multiple areas, it expects the most intense fight in developed-market payments. Kendrick pointed to challengers such as USDG, M⁰, and multibank stablecoin networks that are attempting to offer alternatives to existing payment infrastructure.

In this framing, issuers and payment networks are not competing on token brand alone. Standard Chartered suggests that the way yield generated by stablecoin reserves is divided between different participants could become a decisive factor in which competitors capture more users and volume over time.

For traders and businesses, that is an important variable to watch because revenue-sharing structures can influence pricing, partnerships, and the incentives behind on-chain settlement versus off-chain payment systems.

US rules on stablecoins and accounting could reshape corporate adoption

Standard Chartered’s revised forecast arrives as US regulatory and accounting developments continue to take shape—changes that could directly affect how businesses use stablecoins for payments, settlement, and balance sheet reporting.

The bank references several steps already in motion:

Since the GENIUS Act passed in 2025, US regulators have proposed rules covering stablecoin issuance, reserve requirements, and consumer protections. Some measures have also clarified limits around consumer protection. Among them, the FDIC has advanced a proposal that would exclude stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance coverage. (Cointelegraph previously noted these protection limits, and the FDIC proposal was published by the regulator.)
The US Treasury Department has proposed requirements restricting stablecoin issuance to federally or state-authorized issuers, with licensing expected to take effect in January 2027.
Separately, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which sets US accounting standards, has proposed an update that could affect how companies report certain stablecoins as cash equivalents.

Standard Chartered also flags a practical implication for adoption: blockchain payments company Tempo said the proposed accounting changes could make it easier for businesses to use stablecoins for payments and settlement without introducing additional accounting complications.

Taken together, these developments highlight a potential mismatch that businesses often face: operational convenience on the payment side versus uncertainty on the reporting side. If accounting treatment becomes clearer and regulatory licensing pathways are defined, adoption may become less constrained by internal compliance and finance-policy friction.

What to watch next

Standard Chartered’s message is that stablecoins may keep gaining traction through more frequent usage even when total capitalization is flat. The next signal investors should track is whether US regulatory licensing and FASB’s accounting proposals translate into smoother corporate adoption—especially in developed-market payments, where Standard Chartered expects competition to intensify.