Bernstein flags $4T tokenized credit as tailwind for Figure stock

Figure Technology Solutions is advancing its strategic pivot from being a pure home equity line of credit (HELOC) originator to a broader platform that integrates blockchain infrastructure and AI-powered credit markets. Bernstein Securities reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Figure (FIGR) with a $67 price target, implying roughly 67% upside from current levels and signaling confidence in the company’s transition beyond traditional lending.

In the brokerage note published Tuesday, Bernstein highlighted a momentum shift under way, underscored by April loan volumes totaling $1.34 billion—up 108% year over year and marking the second consecutive month above $1 billion. The firm argues that tokenization—converting loans into on-chain, tradable assets that can settle in real time—could unlock a much larger addressable market than standard HELOC lending, aligning Figure with broader trends in tokenized credit and real-world assets.

Key takeaways

• Bernstein reiterates an Outperform rating on FIGR with a $67 target, signaling potential upside of about two-thirds from current levels.
• The research argues that Figure’s shift toward tokenized credit and AI-driven markets could access a much larger market than its legacy HELOC business.
• April loan volumes reached $1.34 billion, up 108% year over year, the second straight month above $1 billion, with growth expected to continue.
• Bernstein projects total loan volumes could climb to $16.5 billion by 2027 from $8.4 billion in 2025, reflecting a multi-year growth trajectory.
• Tokenized credit remains a small slice of the real-world asset (RWA) market today, but several players are building toward broader adoption, including Figure’s Hastra ecosystem and peers like Centrifuge.

Figure’s pivot: from HELOC originator to a tokenized credit and DeFi-enabled platform

The note frames Figure’s evolution as a deliberate expansion beyond traditional HELOC lending into a platform designed to support a broader spectrum of credit markets. Central to this shift is the tokenization of loans—turning consumer and business debts into on-chain instruments that can be traded and settled in real time. Bernstein views tokenized credit as a way to unlock liquidity, improve risk transfer, and accelerate settlement cycles for lenders and investors alike.

Figure’s Hastra ecosystem embodies this broader vision, integrating tokenized credit products—such as auto loans—into decentralized finance (DeFi) and related capital markets. By embedding tokenized credit inside a blockchain-enabled framework, Figure aims to connect traditional lending with on-chain liquidity, potentially boosting fund flows and diversification for both retail and institutional participants.

Tokenized credit: a nascent, multi-trillion opportunity amid early adoption

Bernstein’s analysis points to a sizable addressable market for tokenized credit, estimated at around $4 trillion in annual origination across multiple loan categories, including mortgages, auto loans, HELOCs, and small-business lending. That figure underscores a long runway for platforms like Figure to broaden activity beyond the company’s core HELOC heritage.

In parallel, the broader real-world asset (RWA) space remains relatively small today. Industry data cited by Bernstein puts the tokenized credit market at about $5.5 billion, highlighting the gap between current adoption and the longer-term growth trajectory forecast by the firm. The potential, however, is clear: as more asset classes are tokenized and brought onto-chain, Figure could play a significant role in linking traditional credit with DeFi liquidity channels.

The broader ecosystem has begun to test these connections. For instance, Centrifuge has expanded its DeFi platform to include tokenized credit and U.S. Treasury products on new blockchain networks, signaling a broader industry push toward institutional-grade assets within DeFi. Such developments provide a proof point that the tokenized-credit thesis—while still in early days—has a credible pathway to scale.

Within Figure’s strategy, the Hastra program is cited as a concrete avenue for expanding tokenized credit products, particularly auto loans, into on-chain markets. This direction aligns with a growing trend of using tokenized consumer and commercial debt to improve liquidity and risk sharing across decentralized platforms.

What this means for investors and builders in crypto finance

The trajectory outlined by Bernstein suggests that investors should watch two key dimensions: the pace of loan-portfolio growth and the rate at which tokenized credit assets gain on-chain liquidity and price discovery. If the April momentum—$1.34 billion in loan originations, up 108% YoY—continues and scales toward Bernstein’s 2027 target, Figure could demonstrate tangible progress from a traditional lender toward a versatile credit-platform model.

Beyond Figure, the broader tokenized-credit story remains a work in progress. The current market size indicates substantial headroom if on-chain settlement, liquidity, and compliance frameworks mature. Observers will be watching how regulatory developments, custody solutions, and institutional participation influence the speed and breadth of adoption in tokenized credit markets.

For builders, the example set by Centrifuge and Figure’s Hastra initiative highlights a path for tokenized credit products to bridge real-world assets with DeFi ecosystems. The ongoing experimentation across mortgages, auto loans, and other indebtedness points to a future where on-chain credit could become a standard liquidity layer for non-traditional borrowers and asset classes.

As Figure navigates this transition, investors will need to monitor not only headline loan volumes but also the quality of onboarding, risk controls, and the ability to convert on-chain liquidity into meaningful, tradable instruments. The open question remains how quickly tokenized credit will reach mainstream liquidity, how regulators will respond to expanded on-chain securitization, and whether the current growth trajectory can withstand macro headwinds.

In the near term, the key data point to watch is loan origination velocity and the trajectory of Hastra-enabled products. If the pace of originations sustains its current speed and tokenized offerings gain broader market acceptance, Figure could move closer to Bernstein’s optimistic outlook. However, given the nascent stage of tokenized credit, investors should balance potential upside with the uncertainties inherent in early-stage on-chain asset markets.

Readers should keep an eye on further disclosures from Figure and its partners as the company scales tokenized credit offerings, alongside independent assessments of market adoption and risk management frameworks in tokenized lending.

Figure Technology Solutions remains at a crossroads of traditional lending and on-chain finance, a junction where near-term momentum and long-term strategic clarity will determine whether tokenized credit becomes a core driver of value for Figure and its ecosystem.