Bitcoin’s 2024 halving cycle lags earlier cycles, analysts say

Bitcoin’s current market cycle is broadly viewed as weaker than its three prior halving-driven runs, according to Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn. By weighing price action since the April 2024 halving against the patterns seen in 2012, 2016 and 2020, Thorn argues that volatility has cooled and upside potential appears more constrained this time around. Notably, the all-time high above $125,000, reached on Oct. 5, 2025, was only about 97% above the 2024 halving price near $63,000, illustrating a markedly tamer peak for the cycle so far.

Thorn’s comparisons hinge on a stark difference in how cycles unfold. The 2012 halving cycle saw a roughly 9,294% price surge to around $1,163; 2016 delivered about a 2,950% surge to near $19,891; and the 2020 halving generated a roughly 761% gain. In Thorn’s view, “Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” a conclusion he shared in an X post that raises a bigger question: is this the new normal, or will the cycle evolve in unforeseen ways?

Beyond price trajectories, the market’s behavioral foundations may be shifting. Thorn notes that volatility has declined with each successive halving, suggesting that BTC’s price could become more influenced by factors outside of the four-year cycle theory traditionally cited by traders. The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index has not surpassed 3.11% in the current cycle, with the last reading above that level recorded on Aug. 24, 2024. The latest 30-day figure sits at about 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Key takeaways

• Galaxy’s Alex Thorn concludes the current BTC cycle is dramatically weaker than the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halving cycles when comparing price action since the April 2024 halving.
• The all-time high above $125,000 in October 2025 was roughly 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000, signaling a much milder top versus prior cycles.
• Volatility has systematically compressed across cycles, with the 30-day BTC volatility staying well below the peaks seen in earlier halvings (latest around 1.75%).
• Market critics point to an early all-time high before the 2024 halving as an anomaly, underscoring that one-off catalysts can distort cycle comparisons.

Market dynamics and the pre-halving anomaly

Another layer of complexity comes from an event-driven impulse that disrupted typical cycle timing. BTC briefly hit an all-time high above $70,000 in March 2024—one month before the April 2024 halving. Analysts have attributed part of the outsized early move to the subsequent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in January 2024, which acted as a catalyst for price acceleration ahead of the halving. This premature peak is frequently cited by critics as a meaningful deviation from the classic halving-driven narrative.

In parallel, Fidelity Digital Assets has observed that Bitcoin’s drawdowns in this cycle have been less severe than in past bear markets. While declines of 80%–90% are not unheard of in older cycles, the drop from the all-time high to later troughs has so far been more contained in this phase. Fidelity’s analysis notes that even a journey back from peak levels remains substantial—BTC pulled back from the late-2021 highs to the roughly $60,000 area, a move just over 50% in magnitude from the peak levels cited by Fidelity’s framework.

Near-term outlook and the long arc

March brought a contrarian take from Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, who said BTC is close to bottoming and that a gradual recovery could begin in 2026. While such forecasts hinge on a confluence of macro factors, liquidity conditions, and investor sentiment, they align with a broader sense that BTC may enter a more protracted phase of consolidation after 2025’s peak, rather than repeating the rapid, cycle-driven surges seen in earlier eras.

As of the latest readings, Bitcoin was trading near $74,703, with fresh momentum up modestly over the past week. The price backdrop underscores Thorn’s observation of a more muted cycle, even as headlines around regulatory clarity, ETF developments, and institutional participation continue to influence sentiment.

What to watch next

The immediate question for investors and builders alike is whether this cycle’s subdued volatility and mixed momentum represent a lasting regime shift or a temporary deviation sparked by unique catalysts. Key developments to monitor include how macro conditions interact with BTC’s supply-demand dynamics, any concrete shifts in ETF-related inflows, and whether the market can align around a clearer, more repeatable set of catalysts akin to past halving narratives. As the market evolves, readers should watch for signs that long-run adoption, liquidity depth, and regulatory clarity begin shaping BTC’s trajectory in a way that differentiates this cycle from its predecessors.