Bitcoin has struggled to build momentum after rebounding from a dip around $67,500, hovering near $68,700 following the US market open on Friday. The latest move comes as traders reassessed macro signals after the October US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed inflationary price pressure remained elevated.

While BTC’s intraday recovery helped offset earlier weakness, analysts are warning that the larger technical picture could deteriorate if key levels fail to hold. At the same time, US rate expectations shifted modestly higher after the PPI data, reinforcing the sensitivity of crypto to traditional risk assets.

Key takeaways

Bitcoin failed to reclaim $70,000 after testing roughly $67,500, its lowest level since mid-August.
The US PPI rose 6.5% year over year in October—the largest annual increase since November 2022—though it came slightly below expectations on both monthly and annual readings.
FedWatch Tool probabilities increased for a 25-basis-point December hike after the data, while odds for a 50-basis-point move declined.
Rekt Capital cautioned that a weekly close below $73,000 could signal another support breakdown, pointing to prior 2026 patterns.

PPI inflation stays sticky as markets recalibrate Fed expectations

According to BLS data, the US PPI climbed 0.3% month over month and 6.5% year over year in October. Both figures were 0.1 percentage points below market expectations, but the annual increase still marked the strongest pace since November 2022.

BLS also reported that the rise in final demand prices was led by goods, with the final demand goods index up 0.5%, while final demand services increased 0.2%.

In crypto, the immediate impact was reflected in price action: trading data shown by TradingView indicated BTC/USD was down about 4% on the day after bouncing off a roughly 12-week low near $67,500. The rebound into the $68,000 region offered some stabilization, but it did not erase the broader pressure investors appear to be pricing in.

Equities were also under strain at the start of the session. The S&P 500 was down 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5% as traders digested developments around Nvidia and the departure of its CEO, Jensen Huang, reported earlier in the week. Those moves matter because beta-driven assets like crypto often track changes in overall risk appetite, especially around major economic releases.

Rate-hike odds drift toward a smaller move

Following the PPI report, markets adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a minimal 25-basis-point hike at the December meeting rising from 85.4% on Thursday to 89.7% after the release. Meanwhile, odds for a larger 50-basis-point move fell from 14.5% to 10.3%.

Economist Robin Brooks argued in a separate analysis that a 25-basis-point hike in December is “all but inevitable,” while questioning the effectiveness of steeper action. He pointed to the nature of current inflation drivers—citing factors such as an oil-price spike connected to the US-Iran conflict and the possibility that underlying inflation pressures could accelerate more persistently.

In his view, if inflation is primarily tied to oil and regional supply dynamics, a larger rate increase would not meaningfully address the root cause. Conversely, if underlying inflation momentum is the bigger issue, he suggested that 75 basis points would still be too limited to regain control.

For crypto investors, the practical takeaway is that PPI reinforced a narrative of ongoing inflation persistence, even if the data was slightly below forecasts. That combination can keep discount-rate expectations elevated—an important backdrop for assets that trade on liquidity and risk sentiment.

Technical traders watch $73,000 after weekly breakdown risk

Beyond macro data, the focus for many traders is on Bitcoin’s technical levels. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital warned that a weekly close below $73,000 on Sunday could represent a fresh breakdown of a support area that has mattered repeatedly in 2026.

In posts on X, Rekt Capital referenced “sell-side momentum still gaining” and suggested that a weekly candle could repeat a pattern from earlier breakdowns. He noted that last week’s weekly candle closed below multiple levels—$75,000, $76,800, and $78,300—before warning that the current weekly setup could follow through similarly.

Importantly, Rekt Capital also said that after each of the two previous breakdowns, Bitcoin fell to around $60,000. While this does not guarantee the same outcome, it frames $73,000 as a level where sentiment could quickly pivot from consolidation to renewed downside if buyers fail to defend it through the week.

At the time of writing, BTC around $68,700 was down 17.7% in the fourth quarter and 11.2% month to date. CoinGlass data cited in the report also indicates that the quarterly performance is Bitcoin’s second worst on record, underlining how heavy the current downside pressure has been.

What to watch next

Bitcoin’s next decisive signal may come from two directions: whether it can hold up through the end of the week above the $73,000 area highlighted by Rekt Capital, and whether upcoming macro and policy commentary keeps pushing rate expectations higher. With BTC still recovering from a recent multi-month low, traders are likely to stay alert for any sign that a technical breakdown aligns with a fresh deterioration in risk sentiment.