CoinShares: Bitcoin inflows track Fed rate bets, not an exit

Crypto investment flows are increasingly reacting not to crypto-specific news, but to shifts in the US interest-rate outlook. CoinShares said this week that the Federal Reserve remains a major constraint on Bitcoin’s ability to decisively break above the psychologically important $80,000 level—even as inflows show investors are still willing to hold the asset.

In a market update released on April 9, 2026, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill argued that Bitcoin is beginning to trade “like gold again,” but that monetary policy is still effectively placing a ceiling around $80,000.

Key takeaways

• CoinShares links recent crypto flow swings to changes in the Fed’s perceived path for rates rather than to new crypto catalysts.
• Following remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, about $100 million left digital asset investment products as markets raised expectations for a September rate hike.
• Flows reversed over the next week, reaching roughly $1 billion by Sept. 4, coinciding with signals from Fed Governor Christopher Waller that he could support holding rates steady in September if inflation data continues to improve.
• Fed Funds futures priced near a 60% chance of a rate hike after the Sept. 4 period, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
• CoinShares’ rate sensitivity comes as US Treasury plans to increase long-dated buybacks aim to support broader liquidity conditions that have historically helped risk assets.

Why the “rate path” matters for Bitcoin

CoinShares’ central message is that investor behavior is not necessarily moving away from crypto; instead, it is reacting to the market’s evolving assumptions about the Fed. Butterfill’s comment that “investors are not exiting the asset class… they are trading the rate path” frames the recent pattern: when expectations for tightening rose, money flowed out; when the odds shifted toward steadier policy, inflows returned.

The immediate catalyst for that sensitivity came after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. Warsh said progress on inflation had been modest and that price pressures were not easing quickly enough to give the central bank confidence inflation was moving back toward its 2% target. CoinShares reported that roughly $100 million exited digital asset investment products right after the speech as markets quickly increased the probability of a September rate hike.

That “risk-off to risk-on” reversal underscores how marginal changes in liquidity expectations are influencing crypto positioning. Easier financial conditions have historically been supportive for Bitcoin and other risk assets, and CoinShares’ analysis suggests the market is currently treating the Fed as the primary driver of that liquidity impulse.

From Jackson Hole to September: inflows rebound

CoinShares said flows improved after the initial post–Jackson Hole reaction. Over the following week, inflows reached about $1 billion by Sept. 4, indicating investors were willing to return once the probability of further tightening appeared less aggressive.

This rebound coincided with comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. According to the same CoinShares discussion, Waller highlighted recent signs of “disinflation” and indicated he was inclined to keep rates steady in September if upcoming inflation data continued showing progress. For traders and fund managers, this kind of language matters because it shifts how quickly the market expects policy to change—and those expectations often translate into broader moves in yields and risk appetite.

As of Monday, CoinShares pointed to data from CME Group showing Fed Funds futures implied about a 60% chance of a rate hike after the next FOMC meeting. The implication is straightforward: Bitcoin’s performance around key technical levels like $80,000 may remain vulnerable to any sudden repricing of the probability distribution around September’s decision.

Liquidity signals beyond crypto: Treasury buybacks

CoinShares’ interest-rate focus comes alongside a separate, potentially supportive liquidity backdrop. The firm’s assessment is occurring after the US Treasury announced plans to double certain long-dated bond buybacks—from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation—aimed at increasing demand for Treasurys over a defined window.

Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin rose from the low $60,000s to above $80,000 during last month’s advance. The buyback program is expected to run from Sept. 9 through Nov. 4, spanning multiple weeks into the period when markets will be re-evaluating the Fed’s stance and inflation trajectory.

One way to interpret this overlap is through portfolio behavior. As noted in an excerpt from 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder’s Substack newsletter, the Treasury announcement was accompanied by equity sell-offs and shifts across the yield curve, with other macro noise—such as developments related to the Iran conflict and how markets interpreted diplomatic prospects—adding volatility to oil and equity pricing.

Snyder argued that, taken together, these factors point to the rally having “less to do with crypto-specific catalysts” and more to do with investors adjusting de-risking exposure specifically to the US. Whether or not that interpretation proves entirely correct, it aligns with CoinShares’ broader theme: investors are sensitive to the macro transmission mechanism that affects liquidity and relative asset attractiveness.

Standard Chartered has also forecast that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before year-end, as cited in earlier coverage that framed the bond-buyback backdrop as part of the broader driver set for liquidity and risk positioning.

What to watch next as pricing tightens

The practical takeaway for market participants is that Bitcoin’s near-term trading behavior may continue to track rate expectations more than it tracks internal crypto fundamentals. Investors should watch how quickly Fed-related odds change heading into the September decision—especially since CoinShares’ flow data suggests sudden repricing can move money rapidly into or out of digital asset investment products.

At the same time, the Treasury buybacks schedule starting Sept. 9 through Nov. 4 will be a parallel factor that could influence broader liquidity conditions. The key question is whether incoming inflation and Fed signals reinforce steadier policy expectations—or force another shift in the rate path that crypto flows have shown they are willing to respond to immediately.