ETH Trails BTC by 35% Over 12 Months, Indicating Ongoing Weakness

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has dropped more than 35% versus Bitcoin (BTC) over the last 12 months, a slide that market observers say could have further to run if technical and on-chain signals play out. The underperformance comes as Bitcoin continues to attract corporate interest and mainstream adoption, while Ethereum faces a mix of liquidity and momentum headwinds that have tempered its rally narratives.

Key takeaways:

• ETH/BTC remains trapped below a multi-year descending trend line that has capped breakouts since 2022, with a potential 40% downside target toward 0.0176 BTC if the weakness persists into 2026.
• Binance ETH reserves climbed to 3.62 million ETH as of May, about 24.6% of all Ether held on exchanges, signaling higher near-term selling risk, according to CryptoQuant data.
• Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen, highlighting divergent exchange liquidity trends between the two assets.
• The broader market narrative, including Ethereum’s lingering “ultrasound money” momentum and BTC’s growing institutional interest, continues to shape relative performance and risk sentiment.

ETH-BTC: technical setup points to extended weakness

ETH/BTC has remained entrenched beneath a long-standing descending trend line that has constrained every major breakout since 2022. The pattern mirrors a similar setup that preceded the steep drop from late 2024 into 2025, suggesting the same structural pressure could reassert itself if BTC and ETH fail to find fresh demand.

In August 2025, ETH/BTC briefly retested the trend line, only to be repelled at a convergence zone that included the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month exponential moving average. Since then, the pair slid back below the 20-month moving average, which now acts as a resistance-turned-signal of selling pressure around the 0.034 BTC level.

The chart implies a potential objective around 0.0176 BTC if selling continues, a level that would represent roughly a 40% decline from recent prices and aligns with the 2020 cycle bottom. Traders watching the eth/btc ladder see this as a crucial test of whether Ether can regain tempo or if Bitcoin’s uptrend remains the dominant driver of market risk appetite.

On-chain and exchange signals paint a mixed liquidity picture

On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable divergence in exchange balances between ETH and BTC. Ether reserves on Binance—the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume—have risen to 3.62 million ETH as of May, accounting for about 24.6% of all Ether held on crypto exchanges. This increase in available ETH suggests more supply could be poised for sale if buyers do not absorb it in the current market environment.

In contrast, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen, signaling tighter exchange-side liquidity for BTC. The opposite dynamics—rising ETH supply versus diminishing BTC supply on exchanges—help explain, at least in part, the ongoing divergences in price action between the two assets.

Higher exchange balances for ETH often translate into greater near-term selling pressure, especially when demand lacks the vigor to match supply. By contrast, shrinking BTC reserves can reflect a combination of hodling behavior and a rotation of liquidity away from centralized venues, which can give BTC a relative edge when risk sentiment shifts.

These reserve patterns add a practical dimension to the broader narrative: Ether appears more exposed to potential supply-driven downside on exchange rails, while Bitcoin benefits from tighter liquidity and, in some cases, a stronger bid from institutional participants stepping into the market.

Narrative tensions and market context: where the momentum sits

Beyond the charts and on-chain metrics, the fundamental backdrop for Ether remains a topic of debate. For years, Ether’s “ultrasound money” narrative — the idea of a deflationary or steadily scarce asset embedded in Ethereum’s monetary dynamics — helped frame ETH as a better long-term store of value relative to fiat or even BTC in some cycles. However, that narrative has cooled in recent periods, contributing to a prolonged period of lag versus Bitcoin on a relative performance basis.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has benefited from growing corporate engagement and wider adoption into traditional portfolios. Market observers have pointed to evidence of corporate accumulation and strategic participation by institutions as a tailwind for BTC’s price resilience. Notably, retail and institutional access to spot BTC trading, including upcoming offerings and integration into mainstream platforms, continues to shape the adoption trajectory for BTC more than ETH in several market segments.

Recent coverage underscores this asymmetry: corporate players have shown sustained interest in BTC, while Ethereum’s growth narrative has faced headwinds that temper a broad-based upside versus BTC. In parallel, developments such as retail access expansions for spot BTC and ETH trading — including moves from traditional financial firms into crypto markets — remain in focus for readers watching how the market prices risk, liquidity, and opportunity across the digital asset spectrum.

Related commentary has explored how these dynamic shifts could influence capex decisions for developers, liquidity provisioning for exchanges, and the pace of adoption on Layer 2s and decentralized finance ecosystems. As the market absorbs these cross-currents, traders may look for catalysts that could tilt the balance—ranging from further macro normalization to concrete progress on Ethereum’s scaling roadmap and the evolution of centralized exchange liquidity pools.

On balance, the ETH-BTC relationship continues to hinge on a mix of technical barriers, on-chain liquidity signals, and the evolving narrative around what each asset represents to investors and users in different market regimes. While BTC’s path remains susceptible to institutional demand and liquidity dynamics, Ether’s fate will likely be decided by how supply pressure on exchanges interacts with network upgrades, layer-2 maturation, and the broader pace of Ethereum’s ecosystem development.

Readers should watch whether ETH can push through the established trend line, or if the combination of rising ETH supply on major exchanges and continued resistance around key moving averages keeps the pair under pressure. The next price pivot around 0.0176 BTC would not only mark a technical breakpoint but also signal whether Ether can reassert a case for value relative to BTC in the face of shifting liquidity and narrative forces.

The data underpinning these observations draw from CryptoQuant’s exchange-flow analytics, with ETH reserve figures specifically cited for Binance as of May. For anyone tracking the liquidity landscape, these metrics provide a practical lens into where risk might be concentrated in the near term and how institutional and retail behavior could shape the next leg of the crypto cycle.

What unfolds next could hinge on how much buy-side demand returns to ETH in the face of a higher supply ceiling on exchanges and whether BTC’s liquidity backdrop remains supportive as institutional participation continues to expand. Keep an eye on reserve trends, price action around the critical trend line, and any regulatory or product developments that could tilt market sentiment in the coming weeks and months.